Adrian Peterson is Not a Child Abuser

by Jeff Miller


Since my blog has apparently morphed from fantasy football to social commentary, I knew I'd want to address Adrian Peterson at some point. Because the uniqueness of this story (huge NFL star arrested for beating his kids one week after video of huge NFL star KO'ing his wife surfaces), I decided it would be best to take some time to digest the reports, his comments, and the NFL's reaction before I threw in my two cents. My conclusion: While Peterson clearly abused his children, he is most likely not a child abuser.

Allow me to explain.

Lets say a guy named John has a few beers after work, putting him just under the legal blood/alcohol limit. John hops in his car and as he is heading home, texts his wife asking if she needs anything from the grocery store. BOOM....John runs a red light, smashing into another car, killing the driver. Our subject made two very questionable decisions:

1. Drove despite being right at the threshold of being too drunk to do so (in legal terms).

2. Texting while driving.

These two things may make John stupid, ignorant, careless, and for that moment, dangerous, but they don't make him a murderer.

Adrian Peterson is John. What he did to his kids is stupid, ignorant, careless, and dangerous, but it wasn't malicious. Whether Peterson should know better or not, he didn't (his nonchalant up-frontness with police is a testament to this fact). Even though he abused his kids, I don't believe he is a child abuser. Instead, he is an uneducated, ignorant, reckless father who damaged his children both physically and mentally. His actions were gross, reprehensible, and probably criminal, but he is certainly no Ray Rice.

The Viking's handling of the situation is absurd. Suspending him last week was the right move. Reinstating him with a "due process" rationale was not. What the courts say should have no bearing on how the NFL and Minnesota Vikings treat this scenario. With most of the facts in the case made apparent by Peterson himself, we, and the NFL, know what we need to know already: Adrian Peterson abuses his children. Why he does it, what his reasoning is, and all of details around it are nothing more than noise as far as the League is concerned. Peterson should be suspended at least six games per the new domestic abuse policy, and probably indefinitely considering he abused children and not an adult. There isn't really any other conversation to be had.

For the past week, the NFL has been as embattled as any sports organization in recent memory. Their decision make, PR spin, and everything else has rated somewhere between baffling and what the fuck? This is their chance to start to reverse the trend by making a stand. For the sake of the sport I love, I hope they find it within themselves to do so.


It is OK to Hit a Woman

by Jeff Miller


There have been roughly 12 trillion hot-takes on the Ray Rice situation so I am reticent to add another, but after weeks of seeing people miss the point, I just couldn't help myself. Here goes nothing...

The opinions on this debacle seem to fall under one of three umbrellas:

1. Roger Goodell is a piece of trash/egomaniac/money grubbing pig capitalist.

2. You're better off hitting women than smoking weed.

3. Ray Rice should be jailed.

While I'd have a hard time disputing any of the above with a straight face, I will say that those three things aren't really on my radar as it relates to this issue. What I'm concentrating on is how much of blame for all of this falls on society itself. 

Earlier today on Twitter I compared domestic violence (DV) to racism. What I meant by the statement is that most intelligent people realize it is a terrible thing, yet for some reason it is still incredibly prevalent. While the days of the 1940's, where you could strike your wife in public then turn around and call a black person a nigger are part of a (thankfully) bygone era, we still have seething remnants poisoning society, especially among the poorly educated. What's left is what I call, "casual racism," or, in this case of DV, "ambivalence." 

Here is how I know there is a prevailing ambivalence towards DV: The commissioner of the NFL suspended a player for two games for knocking his partner unconscious.

A common theory is Goodell only cares about money. But when you think about that critically for more than half a second, you realize how idiotic of a notion it is.

My question: How does having Ray Rice in football games add to the NFL's bottom line in any significant way?

It doesn't.

Even if it did, if Goodell didn't think NFL fans were ambivalent towards DV, he never would have handed down such a short suspension. In the end, if he really is concerned only with dollars, the path he took cost him the most possible off the bottom line and if he didn't see that coming, he is much less intelligent than even his harshest critics could imagine.

There are only two real explanations for his decision:

1. He thought NFL fans wouldn't really care the suspension was short.

2. He, himself, is ambivalent towards DV, causing the assumption others would be as well.

Both of these options prove my point.

Let's talk about drug suspensions for a moment. They are long, seemingly out of whack with even the new DV penalties imposed by the NFL in a poorly orchestrated effort to save face. But in terms of the societal view of drugs, it falls perfectly in line.

Look at the drug laws in this country. Look at how we treat alcohol versus less damaging, but illegal drugs. Think about how Charlie Sheen is a coke head but nobody remembers Kobe Bryant cheated on his wife then paid the person he slept with not to talk about it in a trial for God knows what reason. Explain to me how, "Ray Lewis is a murderer" comes up constantly on my Twitter feed but, "Ben Roetlisberger is a rapist" doesn't. (Neither man was convicted of those crimes, but many, perhaps even most, people assume their guilt.) 

There is absolutely no doubt our society views smoking weed or doing a bump of coke as categorically worse than hitting a woman, cheating on your wife, or even sexual assault. We may act outraged, but the penalties, laws, prosecution rates, and myriad other factors are proof society feels this way. 

The NFL is simply acting in accordance with societal convention. They suspend Josh Gordon a year because society has decided weed is terrible. They suspend Ray Rice two games because society dictates DV isn't that big of a deal. Roger Goodell may be money hungry, but in this case, he is just an ignorant fool who wasn't able to step outside of a situation to really understand the impact of his decision.

I'm certainly not excusing Goodell for his actions, as his inability to realize his opportunity to help change the way people think about DV is reprehensible. I'm clearly not excusing Rice for hitting a woman. And I'm in no way letting the legal system off the hook for their failure to hand down a legitimate penalty. I am simply explaining the reason all of this happened is that society allowed it to.

How do we fix this?

Instead of screaming about Rice and Goodell as individuals, maybe be outraged about all the other DV cases that go unreported or unprosecuted. Why don't women report abuse more often? Why do so many back out of testimony? Why did Ray Rice's victim end up his wife?

Before these women were victims of assault, they were victims of society. Just as casual racism is incredibly contagious to our youth, any number of things contribute to a huge percentage of women who don't have the feeling of empowerment required to escape or stand up for themselves. Basically, the same thing that has caused an immense wage gap between the sexes also causes ambivalence towards DV. Having a very public case where the sports hero skates with the law, at his job, and with his victim certainly isn't going to help.

The solution isn't easy, but I think it is relatively simple, if painful. We need time to allow society to change. When you have this many people, nothing happens overnight. We need societal leaders not just speaking out against DV, but taking visible action in the form of tougher laws, or in this instance, longer suspensions (life, for example). 

As much as I'd like it to be the case, you can't flip a switch and make change happen, but you can react to things like the Ray Rice situation the right way, and every little bit helps.


Spreadsheet of Magnificence

by Jeff Miller


One of my main frustrations when performing research for a column is the lack of a complete set of sortable statistics. No more! Because I hate sunlight, I spent way too many hours holed up in my office compiling a massive (over 150,000 cells of data) stat dump of every single skill position player to record a touch between the 2000 and 2013 seasons. (I'm also plotting a sheet for quarterbacks. I'll get there, and probably pretty soon.)

Once compiled, I added in positions for each player, calculated their fantasy output (using PPR scoring), and organized things all nice and neat. The result is a fully sortable spreadsheet that includes nearly every relevant basic statistical category, including player age* during the season in question.

There are two remaining things with the spreadsheet that I'd like to try and fix in the future:

1. The lack of target data. My source (see below) for the stats did not include this information so I'd have to research and enter it all manually. I estimate this as a 10-15 hour job. So while it would be nice to have that data in here right now, I need a break first!

2. Players who switched teams mid-season have their team listed as 2TM or 3TM. As with targets, I'd like to fix this but have no immediate plans to do so.

If you feel like this data has brought value to your fantasy football knowledge or experience, I'd ask that you make a donation of any amount to my PayPal account (jeff@cardrunners.com; please use "DONATE" as the note when you send). 100% of every dollar donated will go to either Las Vegas' local chapter of the SPCA or Adopt A Rescue Pet. We have adopted one dog each from both organizations and have a deep affection and respect for what they do.  

I will periodically update this blog and my Twitter account (@FFJeffM) with the amount we've been able to donate due to your generosity.

If you are not comfortable trusting a stranger with your money, hey, I get that. No hard feelings. Please still feel free to download and research to your heart's content!

I am hoping that many of you will use the Spreadsheet of Magnificence for research in a published article. If that includes you, feel free to give me a shout out in the article, but do not feel obligated to do so in any way. I am releasing this data to the public domain and do not want or need any credit for it. 

The permanent home for the download link and information on the spreadsheet will be the new Downloads page on this site. If you lose or screw up the document, you can always start over by re-downloading it.

Thank you so much for taking the time to check out my site and the spreadsheet. The hardcore fantasy football community we inhabit is an awesome thing, and for that I am eternally grateful.

To download the Spreadsheet of Magnificence, click here.

 

*Player age and all other stats save for player position were taken from Pro Football Reference. I cannot vouch for the complete validity of the data, but considering their very well regarded reputation, I am very confident in the accuracy of the information.


Is Tate Golden in Detroit?

by Jeff Miller


I took five minutes out of my morning to do a quick bit of math on Golden Tate and his prospects for success in Detroit. The main goal of the exercise was to determine an achievable ceiling for Tate. My findings aren't revolutionary by any means, but they are at least worth considering.

I started out by calculating Tate's fantasy points per target for his career. (I excluded his rookie year, as I wanted a representative sample of his current skill.) With that figure in hand, I looked at the box score for every Lion's game in 2013 to get an idea of how many times their WR2 was targeted. What we end up with is 115 targets. At Tate's rate of 1.94 points per, our speculative total is 223 fantasy points, or mid-low end WR2 territory. 

This assumes a lot of things:

  1. That Tate's efficiency, which would rank him among the top 10-12 in the league, doesn't see a fall off in Detroit. 
  2. That the target number doesn't change much despite Detroit having a new coaching regime and Tate being worlds better than anything the Lions had opposite Calvin Johnson last year. 
  3. That Detroit doesn't take another wide receiver early in the May draft. 

But you know what they say about assumptions...

In digging around with target numbers a bit more, 135 seems to be about the high water mark for non-first option receivers. If Detroit continues to throw as much as they have in years past, I could see Tate approaching that. Certainly, the 115 I speculated on earlier is more than reasonable.

What I can't see is him maintaining the level of efficiency he enjoyed with Seattle. There is a lot of talk about how efficient Tate was last year with his targets, etc. and that is all well and good, but Russell Wilson was the fifth most efficient QB in terms of fantasy points per attempt. Matt Stafford ranked 15th.* 

All of this is a long winded way of saying Tate's reasonably achievable upside is likely in the WR 16-18 territory. The good news is that due to the volume of passes he is likely to see, his floor is very high. Tate currently sits as my 31st ranked receiver. I'm not yet sure if I plan to change that, but if I do, it would be to move him up only a handful of spots.

 

*Sample includes 2013's top 32 quarterbacks as determined by total passing fantasy points (rushing statistics were excluded).